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农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例

黄颖 刘德娟 曾玉荣

黄颖, 刘德娟, 曾玉荣. 农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例[J]. 福建农业学报, 2019, 34(3): 371-377. doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018
引用本文: 黄颖, 刘德娟, 曾玉荣. 农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例[J]. 福建农业学报, 2019, 34(3): 371-377. doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018
HUANG Ying, LIU De-juan, ZENG Yu-rong. Effect of Agricultural Scale and Structure on Poverty Alleviation for Farmers in Fujian -A Case Study Analyzed by Household Income Threshold[J]. Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2019, 34(3): 371-377. doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018
Citation: HUANG Ying, LIU De-juan, ZENG Yu-rong. Effect of Agricultural Scale and Structure on Poverty Alleviation for Farmers in Fujian -A Case Study Analyzed by Household Income Threshold[J]. Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2019, 34(3): 371-377. doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018

农业产业规模与结构对农村减贫的门槛效应分析——以福建省为例

doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2019.03.018
基金项目: 

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-9

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-1

福建省科技计划项目——省属公益类科研院所基本科研专项 2017R1015-3

福建省财政专项——福建省农业科学院科技创新团队建设项目 STIT2017-2-7

详细信息
    作者简介:

    黄颖(1988-), 女, 硕士, 助理研究员, 研究方向:农业与农村经济问题(E-mail:huangyingruc@163.com)

    通讯作者:

    曾玉荣(1964-), 男, 博士, 研究员, 研究方向:农业与农村经济问题(E-mail:563888535@qq.com)

  • 中图分类号: F313

Effect of Agricultural Scale and Structure on Poverty Alleviation for Farmers in Fujian -A Case Study Analyzed by Household Income Threshold

  • 摘要:   目的  分析农业产业发挥减贫效应的门槛条件,为精准扶贫和扶贫资金的有效利用提供政策参考。  方法  在农业产业发展与贫困理论分析的基础上,基于福建省县域贫困和社会经济统计数据,构建门槛回归模型,以残差平方和最小化为条件确定门槛值,在考虑基础设施、金融情况、教育水平、医疗条件下,主要从规模和结构两个方面检验农村居民人均可支配收入对农业产业扶贫的门槛效应。  结果  当农村居民人均可支配收入低于门槛值时,农业产业规模越大,农业产业的弱质性越强于益贫性,越不利于减贫,但是改善农业产业结构有利于减缓贫困。当农村居民人均可支配收入高于门槛值时,农业产业的规模扩张对农村减贫发挥出正向效应。随着农业产业规模的扩大,农业产业的益贫性强于弱质性,减贫效应开始显现。若某个地区已经脱离贫困,就会进入资本积累的良性循环,农业产业的适度规模就会产生规模经济,大幅提高农民的经济收益。  结论  福建地区农村贫困存在贫困门槛效应。对于尚未跳出贫困陷阱的地区,建议优化农业产业结构,完善农村农业生产基础设施建设,实施兜底式扶贫。对于跳出贫困陷阱的地区,建议加快农地流转,促进农业适度规模发展,推广资源资产收益扶贫机制。
  • 图  1  门槛模型估计

    Figure  1.  Estimations by threshold model

    表  1  变量描述

    Table  1.   Descriptions of statistic variables

    变量
    Variable
    均值
    Mean
    标准差
    Standard error
    最小值
    Minimum
    最大值
    Maximum
    被解释变量Interpreted variables
      贫困人口Poor Population/人 2389.69 2769.63 0 10710.00
    农业产业情况Agriculture
      农业产业规模Scale of Agriculture/亿元 29.18 22.36 0.13 138.98
      农业产业结构Agricultural Industry Structure 0.56 0.16 0.26 1.00
    门槛变量Threshold variables
      农村居民人均可支配收入Per capita disposable income of rural residents/元 25571.80 17848.36 10516.55 96850.64
    基础设施Infrastructure
      农村投递路线总长度Total length of rural delivery routes/km 1284.21 1195.25 449.00 7167.00
      公路通车里程Highway mileage/km 1301.89 781.02 87.00 4058.00
    金融环境Financial environment
      金融规模Financial scale/亿元 1.41 0.47 0.21 3.16
      金融效率Financial efficiency 0.76 0.28 0.32 1.91
      金融结构Financial structure 0.78 0.41 0.21 2.34
    教育水平Education level
      师生比Teacher student ratio 0.07 0.01 0.05 0.10
    医疗条件Medical conditions
      卫生机构数Number of health institutions/个 329.26 183.84 106.00 933.00
      卫生技术人员数Number of health technicians/人 2629.63 2572.73 407.00 15721.00
    注:贫困人口数据来源于福建省农业农村厅扶贫办,其他数据来源于《福建省统计年鉴2017》。
    Note:Data on poverty-stricken population are from the Poverty Alleviation Office of Fujian Agricultural Bureau,and others from Fujian Statistical Yearbook 2017.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  农业产业减贫效应的估计结果(因变量:贫困人口)

    Table  2.   Estimated poverty alleviation in agriculture communities (dependent variables: population in poverty)

    变量
    Variable
    估计值
    Coefficients
    标准误
    Standard error
    t
    t value
    P
    P value
    截距项Intercept 7124.564 4744.811 1.502 0.14052
    农业产业规模Scale of agriculture 90.4663 37.4943 2.413 0.02017**
    农业产业结构Agricultural iIndustry structure -14842.4 5233.323 -2.836 0.00694***
    农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元
    Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan
    -5247.14 3375.845 -1.554 0.12744
    农村投递路线总长度Total Length of rural delivery route/km -0.8889 0.4341 -2.048 0.04673**
    公路通车里程Highway mileage/km 0.4768 0.5916 0.806 0.42469
    金融规模Financial scale/亿元 -772.067 829.9796 -0.93 0.35745
    金融效率Financial efficiency -2252.41 1335.283 -1.687 0.09888*
    金融结构Financial structure 1076.541 806.8983 1.334 0.18917
    师生比Teacher student ratio 26770.49 36885.96 0.726 0.47192
    卫生机构数Number of health institutions/个 3.5539 2.9137 1.22 0.22922
    卫生技术人员数Number of health technicians/人 0.2931 0.5985 0.49 0.62682
    农业产业规模:农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元
    Scale of agriculture: Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan
    -95.47 40.6836 -2.347 0.02362**
    农业产业结构:农村居民人均可支配收入>14146元
    Agricultural structure: Per capita disposable income of rural residents>14146 Yuan
    12337.73 6337.306 1.947 0.0581*
    F统计值(F statistical value):4.096 R2 :0.5532
    注:***、**、*表示估计结果在0.01、0.05、0.1的水平上显著。
    Note: ***,** and * indicate estimates of significance at levels of 0.01,0.05,0.1,respectively.
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2018-11-19
  • 修回日期:  2019-02-26
  • 刊出日期:  2019-03-28

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