摘要:
本文以相关和回归分析方法研究了莆田、晋江、同安3县的花生气候产量,并对1995～2000年的年景作了展望,主要结论:1967～1991年3县和全省的花生趋势产量均保持正增长,年增值为9～12kg/hm2;1967～1991年福建花生气候产量的评定结果为8年欠(或偏欠)、4年平、13年丰(或偏丰);花生气候产量与6月中旬至7月下旬的气温、降水、日照以及副热带高压强度、位置和台风多少有关,尤以睛热天数和台风指数多少关系最为密切;在建立气候产量方程的基础上,通过未来气象因子的外延预报,对1995～2000年花生年景作了展望,预计1995、1997、1998年为增产年,1996、1999年略增,2000年为减产年。
Abstract:
The climatic yield of peanut in Putian,Jinzhen and Tongan Counties,Fujian Province was studied to predict the harvest in 1995～2000 using regressional analysis.The results showed that the tended yields of peanut increased in 1967～1991,of which the increasing rate was 9～12 kg/hm2.The climatic yields were depended on temperature,precipitation,sunshine,intensity of subtropical anticyclone and index of typhoon from the second ten days of june to the last ten days of July,especially depended on the number of hot summer days and index of typhoon.The prediction of the peanut harvest was made to increase in 1995,1997 and 1998,to decrease in 1996,1999 and 2000.
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