物候模型预测稻纵卷叶螟发生期的应用研究

张谷丰; 孙雪梅; 张志春; 杨琼; 朱叶芹

doi:10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2013.02.012

物候模型预测稻纵卷叶螟发生期的应用研究

doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2013.02.012

1. 江苏省农业科学院植物保护研究所,江苏南京,210014;
2. 江苏省通州区植保站,江苏南通,226300;
3. 江苏省植物保护站,江苏南京,210036

基金项目:

农业公益性行业专项(200903051)

江苏省创新基金项目[CX(12)3057]

详细信息

作者简介:
张谷丰(1970-),博士,研究员,主要从事农业昆虫预警及防控研究(E-mail:tzzbzzgf@gotmail.com)

中图分类号: S435.112.1
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- 文章访问数: 131
- HTML全文浏览量: 39
- PDF下载量: 3
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2012-11-11
- 刊出日期: 2013-02-18

Application Research on Occurrence Stage Forecasting of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis by Phenological Model

1. Institute of Plant Protection,Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Science,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210014,China;
2. Plant Protection of Tongzhou,Jiangsu Province,Nantong,Jiangsu 226300,China;
3. Plant Protection Station of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210036,China

摘要

摘要: 针对当前水稻纵卷叶螟发生期预报人为因素影响大、时效性差等缺点,应用物候模型、公共气象信息及网络数据库,结合稻纵卷叶螟的生物学参数组建了稻纵卷叶螟的发生期自动模拟预报系统,经江苏通州2003~2012年的稻纵卷叶螟系统调查数据验证比较,结果表明该系统可自动模拟预报稻纵卷叶螟的发生期,且准确率高,时效性强。模型计算方法以正弦法水平截取的精度最高,在稻纵卷叶螟1个世代时间段内,平均误差仅0.56d,优于用日平均温度计算的有效积温法(平均误差为2.35d)。本预报系统可在生产上推广应用,取代目前生产上常用的历期法、期距法等发生期预报方法。
- 稻纵卷叶螟 /
- 发生期 /
- 物候模型 /
- 模拟系统
Abstract: Because of the disadvantage of the artificial influence factors and bad timeliness in occurrence stage forecasting of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis,a simulation and prediction system for Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis occurrence stage was built by Phenological Model,public weather information and web database.The study showed that the new method had the advantages of high accuracy and fine timeliness for the forecasting of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis occurrence stage according to the investigated data from Tongzhou site in 2003-2012.The single sine with horizontal method had the high precision for forecasting and the average error was only 0.56 day during one generation of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis,compared with a average error of 2.35 days by the method of effective average temperature.Our results suggest that the system should be popularized and applied.
- Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenée /
- occurrence stage /
- phenological model /
- simulation system

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参考文献(16)

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