Mechanism, Countermeasures and Industrial Spillover Effect of Agriculture Product Harm Crisis
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摘要: 准确预判农产品伤害危机的行业溢出效应是企业、行业和政府正确应对危机的前提。针对农产品是必需品的特征，借鉴修正的霍特林纵向差异化模型，构建农产品伤害危机影响未涉事企业产品价格和利润的数理模型。研究表明：农产品伤害危机的行业溢出效应取决于涉事产品的实际质量以及涉事产品和未涉事产品单位生产成本的差异、实际质量差异和感知质量的差异。因此，农产品伤害危机发生后，行业内的其他企业应根据具体情况，采取差异化的策略和针对性的补救措施。
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关键词:
- 产品伤害危机 /
- 竞争效应 /
- 传染效应 /
- 农产品 /
- 霍特林纵向差异化模型
Abstract: Accurate prediction on potential damages due to a crisis on agriculture products is crucial in mitigating the consequential effects for the business, industry and government. Taking the unique characteristics of agriculture products into consideration, this article presents a modified Hotelling model for impact analysis on product price and profit. It appeared that whether the non-directly involved parties would benefit or suffer from a crisis depended on the quality of the products that caused the occurrence, as well as the production cost, actual and perceived quality of the products that were not associated in the event. Therefore, in response to such a challenging situation, the non-involved businesses should take timely and appropriate measures with specific and focused analyses to prevent or minimize possible harms from the failure experienced by their colleagues.-
Key words:
- product harm crisis /
- competitive effect /
- contagion effect /
- agro-product /
- Hotelling model
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表 1 农产品伤害危机在利润层面的行业溢出效应
Table 1. Spillover effect on business profitability from agro-product harm crisis
危机的类型 行业溢出效应的影响因素 竞争效应 传染效应 质量低的产品发生危机 单位成本差异 - + 实际质量差异 + - 感知质量差异 + - 质量高的产品发生危机，但感知质量排序与实际质量一致 单位生产成本 + - 实际质量差异 - + 感知质量差异 - + 质量较高的产品发生危机，但感知质量排序与实际质量一致 单位成本差异 $\left( {{d_1} - {d_2}} \right)\left( {c + \frac{{{d_1}{d_2}}}{{{d_1} - {d_2}}}} \right) < 0 $ - + $\left( {{d_1} - {d_2}} \right)\left( {c + \frac{{{d_1}{d_2}}}{{{d_1} - {d_2}}}} \right) > 0 $ + - 实际质量差异 c2>d12 + - c2 < d12 - + 感知质量差异 c2 < 4d22 + - c2>4d22 - + 注：“-”表示负相关，“+”表示正相关。 
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