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茶花鸡产蛋性能及产蛋率和累计产蛋数曲线拟合分析

刘永 自先念 杜彦丽 李子健 康佳佳 高振东 王坤 豆腾飞 贾俊静 葛长荣

刘永,自先念,杜彦丽,等. 茶花鸡产蛋性能及产蛋率和累计产蛋数曲线拟合分析 [J]. 福建农业学报,2021,36(12):1387−1394 doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2021.12.001
引用本文: 刘永,自先念,杜彦丽,等. 茶花鸡产蛋性能及产蛋率和累计产蛋数曲线拟合分析 [J]. 福建农业学报,2021,36(12):1387−1394 doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2021.12.001
LIU Y, ZI X N, DU Y L, et al. Egg-laying Performance and Prediction Models of Chahua Chickens [J]. Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2021,36(12):1387−1394 doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2021.12.001
Citation: LIU Y, ZI X N, DU Y L, et al. Egg-laying Performance and Prediction Models of Chahua Chickens [J]. Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences,2021,36(12):1387−1394 doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2021.12.001

茶花鸡产蛋性能及产蛋率和累计产蛋数曲线拟合分析

doi: 10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2021.12.001
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(U1702232、31572359、31560618);云南省自然科学基金重点项目(2016FA046);云南省科技厅南希 • 莱恩院士工作站(2017IC048);云南省“云岭学者”专项(2021);云南省创新团队项目(2019HC011);云南省科技厅邱声祥院士工作站(202005AF150039)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘永(1993−),男,博士研究生,研究方向:动物遗传育种与繁殖(E-mail:1365454414@qq.com

    共同第一作者: 自先念(1991−),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:动物遗传育种与繁殖(E-mail:482710818@ qq.com)

    通讯作者:

    葛长荣(1962−),男,教授,研究方向:动物遗传育种与繁殖(E-mail:gcrzal@126.com

  • 中图分类号: S 831

Egg-laying Performance and Prediction Models of Chahua Chickens

  • 摘要:   目的  探索茶花鸡产蛋规律,为提高茶花鸡的产蛋性能提供参考。  方法  测定茶花鸡的产蛋性能指标(开产日龄、开产日龄体重、30周龄和43周龄产蛋数和蛋重),并进行皮尔逊相关性分析。采用不同的非线性模型对茶花鸡20~45周龄的产蛋率和累计产蛋数进行曲线拟合分析,并与观测值进行比较。  结果  茶花鸡的开产日龄、30周龄和43周龄蛋重的变异系数均低于10%,开产日龄体重、30周龄及43周龄产蛋数的变异系数则高于10%。产蛋性能指标相关分析结果显示共有10对性状之间具有显著相关性(P<0.05),茶花鸡开产体重与开产日龄呈显著负相关,开产日龄与30周龄及43周龄产蛋数显著负相关,30周龄蛋重与30、43周龄产蛋数显著负相关。开产体重与30周龄及43周龄蛋重显著正相关,开产日龄与30周龄蛋重显著正相关,30周龄蛋重与43周龄蛋重显著正相关,30周龄产蛋数与43周龄产蛋数显著正相关。产蛋率曲线拟合结果表明:拟合度最好的是杨宁模型(R2=0.990);累计产蛋量曲线拟合结果表明,3种模型拟合度都在0.991以上,其中Von Bertalanffy的拟合度最高(R2=0.999)。  结论  茶花鸡开产体重、30周龄和43周龄产蛋数有改良空间,开产日龄、30周龄和43周龄蛋重整齐度较好。由于蛋重跟产蛋数呈负相关,育种过程中应兼顾蛋重与产蛋数,且开产日龄等指标是茶花鸡产蛋性能选育过程中重要的衡量指标。杨宁和Von Bertalanffy模型分别适用于茶花鸡产蛋率和累计产蛋数拟合,可对茶花鸡的产蛋规律进行评估和预测。
  • 图  1  茶花鸡实际产蛋率与不同模型拟合曲线

    Figure  1.  Actual and fitted curves of different models on Chahua chicken egg-laying rate

    图  2  茶花鸡实际累计产蛋量同模型拟合曲线

    Figure  2.  Actual and fitted curves of different models on Chahua chicken cumulative egg production

    表  1  4种数学模型表达式

    Table  1.   Four mathematical models

    模型
    Model
    模型表达式
    Model expression
    伍德模型 Wood model y(t)=atbe−ct
    分室模型 McMillan model y(t)=a[1−e−c(t−d)]e−bt
    杨宁模型 Yang-Ning model y(t)=ae−bt/[1+e−c(t−d)]
    三次方程 Cubic equation y(t)=a+bt+ct2+dt3
    注:a、b、c和d为待定参数,e为自然对数底,t为产蛋周龄,y(t)为第t周的产蛋率。
    Note: a、b、c and d are undetermined parameters, e is the natural base, t is the age of laying week, y(t) is the laying rate at week t.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  3种数学模型表达式及拐点周龄、拐点产蛋数计算公式

    Table  2.   Three mathematical models and formulas for calculating inflection points of chicken age and egg number

    模型
    Model
    模型表达式
    Model
    Expression
    拐点周龄
    Week at
    inflection point
    拐点产蛋数
    Number of eggs at
    inflection point
    Logisticy(t)=a/(1+be−kt)(1nb)/ka/2
    Gompertzy(t)=ae−be(−k−t)(1nb)/ka/e
    Von bertalanffyy(t)=a(1−be−kt)3(1n3b)/k8a/27
    注:t为产蛋周龄,y(t)为第t周的产蛋数,参数a为极限产蛋数,参数b为待定参数,参数k为接近极限速度,e为自然对数底。
    Note: t is the age of laying week, y(t) is the number of laying eggs in week t, parameter a is the limit number of laying eggs, parameter b is the undetermined parameter, parameter k is the speed near the limit, e is the base of the natural logarithm.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  茶花鸡产蛋性能指标观测值

    Table  3.   Observed value of Chahua chicken egg-laying indices

    性状  
    Traits  
    均值±标准差  
    Mean±standard  
    deviation  
    变异系数CV
    Coefficient of variation/%
    开产日龄体重
    Body weight at first egg/g
    977.81±137.55 14.07
    开产日龄
    Age at first egg/d
    149.11±12.84 8.61
    30周龄蛋重
    Egg weight at 30 weeks/g
    37.05±3.25 8.77
    30周龄产蛋数
    Number of egg for 30 weeks
    51.24±13.24 25.83
    43周龄蛋重
    Egg weight at 43 weeks/g
    41.07±3.92 9.54
    43周龄产蛋数
    Number of eggs for 43 weeks
    134.05±34.31 25.60
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  茶花鸡产蛋性能相关性分析

    Table  4.   Correlations on egg-laying performance indicators of Chahua chickens

    指标
    Indicator
    开产体重
    Body weight at
    first egg
    开产日龄
    Age at
    first egg
    30周龄蛋重
    Egg weight For
    30 weeks
    30周龄产蛋数
    Number of egg
    for 30 weeks
    43周龄蛋重
    Egg weight for
    43 weeks
    43周龄产蛋数
    Number of egg
    for 43 weeks
    开产体重 Body weight at first egg
    开产日龄 Age at first egg −0.245**
    30周龄蛋重 Egg weight for 30 weeks 0.335** 0.189**
    30周龄产蛋数 Number of egg for 30 weeks 0.07 −0.638** −0.148**
    43周龄蛋重 Egg weight for 43 weeks 0.341** 0.091 0.472** −0.058
    43周龄产蛋数 Number of eggs for 43 weeks 0.033 −0.461** −0.097** 0.950** −0.043
    注:表中数字表示相关系数,**在0.01水平上显著相关,*在0.05水平上显著相关。
    Note: The numbers in the table represent correlation coefficients, ** significantly correlated at the level of 0.01, *significantly correlated at the 0.05 level.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  茶花鸡产蛋率曲线4种拟合结果

    Table  5.   Curve fitting of 4 models for egg-laying rate of Chahua chickens

    模型
    Models
    拟合模型
    Fit models
    拟合度R2
    Fit index R2
    abcd
    伍德模型 Wood model y(t)=1.46×10−9t10.029e−0.32t 0.731 1.46×10−9 10.029 0.320
    分室模型 McMillan model y(t)=309.823×[1−e−0.182(t−19.791)]e−0.047t 0.947 309.823 0.047 0.182 19.791
    杨宁模型 Yang-Ning model y(t)=172.824e−0.033t/ [1+e−0.725(t−22.829)] 0.990 172.824 0.033 0.725 22.829
    三次方程 Cubic equation y(t) =−889.094+84.699t−2.441t2 +0.023t3 0.933 −889.094 84.699 −2.441 0.023
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  茶花鸡产蛋率模型拟合值与观测值

    Table  6.   Predicted and observed egg-laying rates of Chahua chickens (单位:%)

    周龄
    Weeks
    观测值
    Observed value
    拟合值 Fitted values
    伍德模型
    Wood model
    分室模型
    McMillan model
    杨宁模型
    Yang-Ning model
    三次方程
    Cubic equation
    20 10.43 27.06(1.59) 4.52(0.57) 10.18(0.02) 12.49(0.20)
    21 18.8 32.05(0.70) 22.81(0.21) 18.13(0.04) 26.11(0.39)
    22 30.48 37.11(0.22 ) 36.47(0.20) 29.61(0.03) 37.74(0.24)
    23 42.57 42.08(0.01 ) 46.50(0.09) 42.96(0.01) 47.54(0.12)
    24 51.69 46.83(0.09 ) 53.67(0.04) 54.82(0.06) 55.62(0.08)
    25 65.05 51.21(0.21) 58.60(0.10) 62.74(0.04) 62.13(0.04)
    26 69.74 55.11(0.21) 61.80(0.11) 66.60(0.05) 67.21(0.04)
    27 69.27 58.43(0.16 ) 63.64(0.08) 67.61(0.02) 71.00(0.02)
    28 66.19 61.10(0.08) 64.44(0.03) 67.02(0.01) 73.63(0.11)
    29 65.18 63.08 (0.03) 64.45(0.1) 65.62(0.01) 75.24(0.15)
    30 61.81 64.35(0.04) 63.84(0.03) 63.86(0.03) 75.98(0.23)
    31 61.67 64.93(0.05 ) 62.78(0.02) 61.97(0.00) 75.97(0.23)
    32 60.96 64.82(0.06) 61.39(0.01) 60.04(0.02) 75.35(0.24)
    33 57.05 64.09(0.12) 59.76(0.05) 58.13(0.02) 74.28(0.30)
    34 55.94 62.78(0.12) 57.96(0.04) 56.26(0.01) 72.87(0.30)
    35 55.4 60.97(0.10) 56.05(0.01) 54.44(0.02) 71.27(0.29)
    36 53.08 58.73(0.11) 54.07(0.02) 52.68(0.01) 69.62(0.31)
    37 52.01 56.13(0.08) 52.06(0.00) 50.97(0.02) 68.06(0.31)
    38 52.16 53.26(0.02) 50.05(0.04) 49.32(0.05) 66.72(0.28)
    39 48.76 50.18(0.03) 48.05(0.01) 47.72(0.02) 65.74(0.35)
    40 47.41 46.97(0.01) 46.08(0.03) 46.17(0.03) 65.27(0.38)
    41 44.29 43.69(0.01) 44.16(0.00) 44.67(0.01) 65.43(0.48)
    42 41.33 40.40(0.02) 42.28(0.02) 43.22(0.05) 66.36(0.61)
    43 41.33 37.15(0.10) 40.46(0.02) 41.82(0.01) 68.22(0.65)
    44 40.68 33.97(0.16) 38.70(0.05) 40.46(0.01) 71.12(0.75)
    45 40.44 30.90(0.24) 36.99(0.09) 39.15(0.03) 75.21(0.86)
    注:括号内为模型拟合值与观测值的相对偏差,相对偏差=|拟合值−观测值|/观测值。
    Note: the relative deviation between model fitting value and observed value is shown in brackets. The relative deviation =| fitting value − observed value |/ observed value.
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  7  茶花鸡3种累计产蛋量曲线拟合结果

    Table  7.   Curve fitting of 3 models for cumulative egg production of Chahua chickens

    模型
    Models
    拟合模型
    Fitted models
    拟合度R2
    Fit index R2
    abk拐点周龄
    Week at
    inflection point
    拐点产蛋数
    Number of eggs at
    inflection point
    Logisticy(t) = 92.329/(1+1186.759e−0.22t)0.99192.3291186.760.2232.1846.16
    Gompertzy(t) = 104.875e−41.996e−0.123t0.998104.87541.9960.12330.3938.58
    Von bertalanffyy(t) = 115.943(1−4.628e−0.09t)30.999115.9434.6280.0929.2334.35
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  8  茶花鸡实际累计产蛋量与拟合值

    Table  8.   Observed and predicted cumulative egg production of Chahua chickens (单位:枚)

    周龄
    Weeks
    观测值
    Observed value
    拟合值 Fitted values
    LogisticGompertzVon bertalanffy
    20 1.46 5.93(3.07) 2.90(0.99) 1.50(0.03)
    21 2.05 7.27(2.56) 4.39(1.15) 3.16(0.54)
    22 4.18 8.89(1.13) 6.34(0.52) 5.46(0.31)
    23 7.16 10.82(0.51) 8.78(0.23) 8.35(0.17)
    24 10.78 13.11(0.22) 11.69(0.09) 11.75(0.09)
    25 15.33 15.78(0.03) 15.07(0.02) 15.58(0.02)
    26 20.21 18.87(0.07) 18.87(0.07) 19.73(0.02)
    27 25.06 22.39(0.11) 23.01(0.08) 24.12(0.04)
    28 29.70 26.33(0.11) 27.43(0.08) 28.67(0.03)
    29 34.26 30.66(0.11) 32.03(0.06) 33.29(0.03)
    30 38.58 35.31(0.08) 36.75(0.05) 37.92(0.02)
    31 42.90 40.22(0.06) 41.49(0.03) 42.51(0.01)
    32 47.17 45.26(0.04) 46.19(0.02) 47.02(0.00)
    33 51.16 50.33(0.02) 50.79(0.01) 51.41(0.00)
    34 55.08 55.30(0.00) 55.23(0.00) 55.66(0.01)
    35 58.96 60.05(0.02) 59.49(0.01) 59.74(0.01)
    36 62.67 64.51(0.03) 63.52(0.01) 63.64(0.02)
    37 66.31 68.59(0.03) 67.32(0.02) 67.34(0.02)
    38 69.96 72.26(0.03) 70.86(0.01) 70.85(0.01)
    39 73.38 75.50(0.03) 74.15(0.01) 74.17(0.01)
    40 76.70 78.32(0.02) 77.19(0.01) 77.29(0.01)
    41 79.80 80.74(0.01) 79.97(0.01) 80.21(0.01)
    42 82.69 82.7(0.00) 82.52(0.00) 82.95(0.00)
    43 85.61 84.51(0.01) 84.84(0.01) 85.50(0.00)
    44 88.48 85.95(0.03) 86.95(0.02) 87.88(0.01)
    45 91.33 87.14(0.05) 88.86(0.03) 90.10(0.01)
    注:括号内为模型拟合值与观测值的相对偏差,相对偏差=|拟合值−观测值|/观测值。
    Note: the relative deviation between model fitting value and observed value is shown in brackets. The relative deviation =| fitting value − observed value |/ observed value.
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-06-13
  • 修回日期:  2021-08-06
  • 网络出版日期:  2021-12-30
  • 刊出日期:  2021-12-28

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